In 2008, the Kosovo government declared the independence of the country which had socio-economic implications. The paper analyses the stability of household decision to send at least one additional member abroad due to dissatisfaction with the national economic situation in the years 2007 -2008. The independence of Kosovo was declared in February 2008 just before the second survey was conducted. This declaration may have altered households’ economic expectations.
The performance of the economic fundamentals in Kosovo was mixed during the period under investigation. So, in this analysis the validity of the attitudinal variable as a proxy of expectations, the particular specification and the validity of the economic model are tested. The analysis is based on two samples that are two different random draws from two different years using the same sampling frame.
The empirical results suggest that:
- there are differences between 2007 and 2008 with respect to the majority of the variables
- estimates using a household decision on planning to send at least one or one additional member abroad is not stable over time
- this instability may suggest that other than economic factors are important in the decision to emigrate
The results raise the need to investigate the stability over time of these relationships in migration decisions, in particular those countries that have experienced political or rapid economic change. Additionally, results suggest that drawing policy recommendations based on only one-off analysis of these relationships may be misleading. The Declaration of Independence is a factor in Kosovo that may have had an impact on households’ migration decisions, but other undetermined factors may also be involved.
